Megan McArdle:

“[L]ook closer to home, where much of America’s educated professional class is in a perpetual stew about President Trump’s violations of democratic norms.

Frankly, I’m stewing about them myself — boiling over, really. But I’ve had to reckon with readers who support Trump and are unmoved by my pleas about the sanctity of democratic proceduralism.

To them, all those sacred procedures are the way that insiders rig the game against outsiders such as themselves. Insiders may throw around phrases such as “the rule of law,” but in the end, what constitutes a violation of those rules is decided by a tiny class of judges and politicians, abetted by professional commentators. Like any hometown ref, outsiders say, the insiders call all the close ones in favor of their own class — or, for the ones that aren’t close, the rules can be rewritten on the fly.

It’s hard to deny that the sentiment has a grain of truth. Not when those elites respond to populist insurgencies by questioning the legitimacy of a presidential election conducted under long-standing rules, or by threatening to hold Brexit do-overs until the voters fall in line. Call me naive, but I think that when a populist campaign against self-dealing insiders starts smashing up your politics, the most important thing those insiders can do is not prove them right.”

Negative Spaces

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“I find paintings to be the easiest entry point into Chinese high culture. Previously I’ve found paintings boring, now I seek them out. There’s a great deal of feeling in the restrained use of the brush; some of the most compelling scenes are ones with large patches of blank space, with brushstrokes not even especially fine. I’ve come to see that it is precisely the restraint that shows evidence of great feeling… how delicate each brushstroke feels when we compare them to European paintings, which tend to have such heavy oils ladened on the canvas.”

Dan Wang

More by the artist here.

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“Here comes a lion, father Oh yes it’s a lion”

Hat tip to Mrs. Ler for shedding light on the greatest Disney movie of all time. This is amazing.

The opening song of “The Lion King” has some pretty distinctive lyrics, though few of us actually know what all of them mean.

“The Circle of Life,” starts out in Zulu before switching over to English. Here are the immortal words of the animals of the Savannah:

“Nants ingonyama bagithi Baba Sithi uhm ingonyama

Nants ingonyama bagithi baba Sithi uhhmm ingonyama Ingonyama Siyo Nqoba Ingonyama Ingonyama nengw’ enamabala”

If you speak Zulu, it might be pretty underwhelming. But, those who aren’t fluent in the language have likely never understood those lyrics. However, we’re in luck, because there’s a the translation of the lyrics into English, via Genius.

“Here comes a lion, father Oh yes it’s a lion

Here comes a lion, father Oh yes it’s a lion A lion We’re going to conquer A lion A lion and a leopard come to this open place”

I’m so happy to know this, despite the fact I can confirm, after extensive research, that there are no leopards in this open place.

the-circle-of-life-from-the-lion-king
NO LEOPARDS

But what about the real beginning of the song? The main-qimg-d26ba9a67bfe86ca1ecb756f832312c6-c

Sadly, as best I can tell, it doesn’t seem to mean anything. Womp womp.

Well, yes and no

Jake Meador:

“If conservatism is to have a future in America, it will be because we rediscover joyful confidence. This will not be the mocking confidence of those who have made a hobby of owning the libs, which is really just another name for the triggering style that revels in a lack of charity and a default posture of hostile mockery. Rather, it is the confidence that comes from a person who knows what they stand for, knows that it is good, and will not be made to feel ashamed or intimidated for finding it good.

It is the posture of someone who possesses an inner clarity, who is surrounded by a sure horizon. In a world of alienation, fear, and loneliness this posture is inherently attractive and true conservatives should have no difficulty in assuming it. But, then, perhaps that is the problem: How do we define a conservative?”

And

“For starters, it comes from a dogmatic conviction that God has made an orderly world, that this order is coherent and complete and beautiful, and that it cannot be permanently ignored and attacked. What’s more, because this order is given to us, it imposes certain burdens and restraints on our behavior. These burdens inevitably limit our “freedom” in both the social sphere and the economic sphere.”

Yes to joyful confidence, yes to inner clarity, yes to settled conviction about a coherent, orderly, beautiful world. Yes to limits and humility. The language of conservatism does cede a kind of momentum, and conservatives are at times too comfortable embracing the “long defeat” rather than cultivating hope.

Instead of grasping or conserving, our task is to rebuild, reclaim, renew, recover, and remind.

But here’s where I don’t follow:

That said, post-Reagan movement conservatism seems to me to be trying to stand within late modern liberalism, a philosophical system that mostly rejects any notion of a given order in nature, and then to conserve certain things from within that system. Specifically, it seeks to conserve a certain way of living while also affirming the economic individualism that has played no small part in unraveling that mode of life. Certainly that is my understanding of Buckley’s legacy and to whatever extent The Bulwark stands in a similar tradition it seems to inevitably be his as well.

If you begin with individualistic assumptions about man’s work in the world, then I don’t see how you can possibly conserve any of the things that movement conservatives claim that they want to conserve.

I just don’t buy that. Both the embrace of limits (recognition of scarcity, humility vis-a-vis centralized planning) and the embrace of an inherent orderliness to human activity are pretty central to small-l liberal notions of economic freedom.  Whatever else you want to say about the stream of thought flowing from Adam Smith, I wouldn’t call it “a philosophical system that mostly rejects any notion of a given order in nature”

But maybe the real issue is economic individualism? How is economic individualism distinct from plain old greed?

My Recent Media Diet

It’s a Wonderful Life: Overcomes the cloy premise, genuinely affecting, Jimmy Stewart is a marvel. Mary, the wife, may be too perfect. An artifact of mid-century social cohesion, portraying the best version of a WASPish Mainline Protestantism.

It’s a mild shame that this movie is quarantined in the Christmas genre as the 20th century successor to A Christmas Carol. A good review, noting Aristotelian influences.

A Quiet Place: Perhaps the most Christian horror movie you’ll ever watch and I agree that it’s implicitly pro-life, and not just because of the unwillingness to consider abortion as an option. Life and love pulse through the film,  which distinguishes the mother’s love for the children, the father’s love for the children, and the parents’ love for each other. It’s Shymalan’s Signs but with Emily Blunt, rather than Joaquin Phoenix’s bachelor uncle character, which is an upgrade. John and Emily forever.

Crazy Rich Asians: Agree with Tyler Cowen that it worked despite feeling like “a dystopia cloaked as a homage”, as most of the characters “greedy, superficial, uncultured, too brand-conscious, and somewhat unpleasant”. But it was fun! Felt like entering another world with a different center of gravity, a place where they do and think differently, including the Methodist Bible study (!) among the rich ladies.

Tree of Life Criterion Collection: The additional footage of Sean Penn’s adult Jack character was the most interesting addition. His more full adult presence anchors the childhood backstory, and links his character with the Malick stand-ins from Knight of Cups and Song to Song. After watching for perhaps the 6th or 7th time, Brad Pitt’s performance still astounds.

The Magic Flute (2006 version): From Kenneth Branagh, it’s wacky, kept me entertained throughout, and effective both as cinema and opera.

My Brilliant Friend (the novel): lived up to the hype on the strength of Ferrante’s characterization of Lila. We’ll see if I’m up for 3 more books of melodrama though.

2018 College Football Season: Rating: D. The most boring season I can remember, with nearly no big upsets, none of the trademark excitement that can make a Saturday magical, Alabama and Clemson meeting in the championship for the 3rd time in 4 years, and an Ohio State Rose Bowl victory that I can’t help but feel disappointed in.

2018 NFL Season: Rating: A-. Kansas City is fun! The LA Rams are fun! Tom Brady getting old and the Patriots maybe being not good is fun!

2018/2019 NBA Season: Rating B-: I have my doubts about the Warriors

In defense of sunk costs

In a recent interview with Daniel Kahnmann, Tyler Cowen asks:

COWEN: If you consider people working in psychology or maybe economics or just social sciences, do you think people persist with their professional and research projects too long or not long enough? Where’s the bias?

KAHNEMAN: My guess is too long, but it’s a personal bias.

COWEN: Because of sunk costs.

KAHNEMAN: Because of sunk costs. I think sunk cost is really the enemy when you’re doing research, innovative research. You’re to recognize that something isn’t working and just move on. And there are different views on that, but my sense is that this is the direction of the bias, yeah, sunk costs.

COWEN: Michael Nielsen is a scientist, and he works at Y Combinator. He tweeted today, “If it weren’t for sunk costs and my respect for them, I wouldn’t ever get anything done.” What do you think?

KAHNEMAN: I mean, you know sunk costs.

COWEN: It keeps you at things, right?

KAHNEMAN: Yeah, it keeps you at things.

COWEN: You stay loyal to your friends. You become more trustworthy.

KAHNEMAN: When we talk about sunk costs, we talk about something else. It is not true that growing attachment to things that you’re familiar with and that you like and love and increasingly trust — that’s not sunk costs. That’s something else.

Sunk cost is a fairly specific thing. It is that you’re putting a different value on a move or an investment that you make because of investment that you have already made than you would if you were looking at that de novo.

Sunk costs, by and large, I think, are a negative. We know that when you get a new CEO in place in organizations, the new CEO has one big advantage. He’s got no sunk costs with respect to poor ideas that the exiting CEO had and couldn’t let go of.

  1. [Mind] Sunk costs are a negative. The ability to identify one’s own mistakes and move on quickly is incredibly valuable. Many people are not objective or self-differentiated enough to detach themselves from their actions or ideas. It is a form of humility to hold onto things loosely. 
  2. [Will] Confidence, persistence, and grit are positives. The ability to see past short-term pain is incredibly valuable. Many people are not objective enough to look at the big picture, and lack the nerve to hold onto their convictions through adversity. It is a form of courage to hold onto things firmly.

There are real benefits to “putting a different value on a move or an investment that you make because of investment that you have already made than you would if you were looking at that de novo” because we’re wired to desire completeness and we’ve been inculcated with the virtue of persistence from childhood.

And what matters more, efficiency or virtue? Accomplishment or formation? Which inspires, moves, affects others? Which increases love for God? Which reflects his love?

 

Mary, Elizabeth, Hannah

Some scattered thoughts:


1 Samuel 1:

“And Hannah prayed and said,

  • “My heart exults in the LORD; my horn is exalted in the LORD.
  • My mouth derides my enemies, because I rejoice in your salvation…

 

  • The bows of the mighty are broken,
    • but the feeble bind on strength.
  • Those who were full have hired themselves out for bread,
    • but those who were hungry have ceased to hunger.
  • The barren has borne seven,
    • but she who has many children is forlorn.
  • The LORD kills and brings to life; he brings down to Sheol and raises up.
  • The LORD makes poor and makes rich; he brings low and he exalts.
  • He raises up the poor from the dust; he lifts the needy from the ash heap to make them sit with princes and inherit a seat of honor.
  • For the pillars of the earth are the LORD’s, and on them he has set the world.

 

  • “He will guard the feet of his faithful ones,
    • but the wicked shall be cut off in darkness, for not by might shall a man prevail.
    • The adversaries of the LORD shall be broken to pieces; against them he will thunder in heaven.

Luke 1:

“And Mary said,

  • “My soul magnifies the Lord, and my spirit rejoices in God my Savior,
    • for he has looked on the humble estate of his servant.
    • For behold, from now on all generations will call me blessed;
  • for he who is mighty has done great things for me, and holy is his name.

And his mercy is for those who fear him from generation to generation.

  • He has shown strength with his arm;
    • he has scattered the proud in the thoughts of their hearts;
  • he [has] exalted those of humble estate;*
    • and brought down the mighty from their thrones
  • he has filled the hungry with good things,
    • and the rich he has sent away empty.

He has helped his servant Israel, in remembrance of his mercy, as he spoke to our fathers, to Abraham and to his offspring forever.””

*flipped with following line

In Mary’s song, structurally, we have two main sections, each capped by references to God’s mercy and faithfulness toward Israel. In the first, the focus is on the Lord’s strength and holiness, and on Mary’s place as the one experiencing the very social upheaval- the “humble” becoming “blessed”- described in section two.

And this blessing is itself a participation in the life and person of her unborn child. The reason the scattered are made strong and the humble exalted and the hungry filled is because the Lord himself becomes humble, hungry, and poor and is himself glorified. Mary’s blessedness is more an anticipation of her future union with her Son than her current union as his mother.

Mary clearly understands this is about more than her personal blessing. Israel cries out for mercy under the leadership of a corrupt priesthood (just like Hannah), among gentile oppressors (just like Hannah). The Lord, remembering his people, is fulfilling the promises he made to Abraham generations ago.


Peter Leithart:

Hannah means “favored one”…but her condition contradicts he name: How could the favored one be barren? In her barrenness, Hannah takes her place with the wives of the patriarchs. Sarah was barren, Rebekah was barren, Rachel was barren. In Genesis, the woman’s barrenness was not only an emotional or family problem but threatened the fulfillment of God’s promise of an abundant seed to inherit the land. Barrenness is significant ultimately because of God’s promise to raise up a “seed of a woman”  to crush the serpent’s head… as long as Sarah was barren, the promise was not being fulfilled. Without a son, there is no future for Israel… Israel was Hannah, the favored one, of Yahweh. How indeed can the favored one be barren?

How can the favored one be barren? Because, says Leithart, Israel was unfaithful.

Hannah knows that only Yahweh “kills and makes alive (2:6)”

If Hannah hoped to rejoice as a mother of children, she knew she had to appeal to the only one who could bring life from the dead… Hannah’s prayer was an admission of her impotence, an acknowledgement that she could do nothing to open the closed door of her womb.


Just as Elizabeth’s son John is the final prophet who prepares the way for his cousin, so Elizabeth is the last in a long line of barren Israelite women. But Mary, the favored one, is not barren, but a virgin. Mary’s pregnancy is miraculous for precisely the opposite reason of Elizabeth and Sarah – not because she is too old to bear a child, but because she is too young.

Whereas Hannah’s song completes and fulfills her earlier cry for a son, Mary’s song is the the overflow of unexpected grace.

Elizabeth and her son are the end of the Law, the end of silence, the end of the empty womb. In her we hear the echo of the barren women, feel the hunger, the poverty, the humility of Advent.

Mary and her Son are the beginning of a new age, a new covenant, a new life. In Him we experience the presence, the immanence, the light, and the glory of Christmas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2,000 Years of Economic History in One Chart

a few thoughts on this chart

  • where is Rome?! Italy? So Rome was only responsible for about 10% of World GDP at 1AD? LOL, just start it at 1820
  • Victorian era UK feels way lower than it should be.
  • Even as the world’s largest economy, China still isn’t back to the share it had in the 1st half of the 1800s. With India’s growth, it may not get there.
  • Russia. Oof.
  • Where will Nigeria and Ethiopia be in 50 years?